XRP has been trading quietly near the $3 mark, with minimal movement in the past 24 hours and a modest 3% gain over the past week. Still, it’s up 35.4% over the last three months, signaling a steady longer-term uptrend.

Now, a mix of whale activity, shrinking exchange balances, and price action near major levels suggests a possibility of a breakout.

Whales Add $750 Million in XRP

One of the clearest signals comes from large holders, often called whales. Since mid-August, the group holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP has added about 250 million tokens.

At a $3 valuation, that equals roughly $750 million in fresh accumulation. Whales usually buy in size when they expect stronger prices ahead. Their steady additions, even as the XRP price stayed flat, suggest confidence that an upswing could be building.

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Exchange Balances Drop to One-Year Low

The whale activity lines up with another important metric — XRP balances on exchanges. Over the past three weeks, exchange reserves have fallen from 3.77 billion XRP to 3.27 billion XRP, a drop of about 13.3%.

This marks the lowest level in a year. Less XRP on exchanges often means less immediate selling pressure, as traders move coins into wallets to hold rather than sell.

In past cases, similar drops have lined up with rallies. For example, between May and June, a sharp fall in reserves was followed by a price jump from $2.10 to $2.32 within days. Per the chart, local bottoms specific to exchange balances have led to previous XRP price rallies.

Therefore, this one-year drop in XRP exchange balance could serve as the key breakout catalyst.

XRP Price Action and Breakout Levels

These signals feed directly into the current XRP price action. For weeks, XRP has traded in a range, struggling to push higher.

The first line in the sand remains $3.01, which has acted as tough resistance. Interestingly, this level has again pushed the XRP price lower.

Above that, $3.16 comes into play. But the real breakout test is at $3.33, where a cluster of price rejections sits. A strong daily close above this mark could open the path to the all-time high at $3.65.

The bullish outlook is invalidated under $2.72. If that breaks, the XRP price might hit new local lows.

Until then, the XRP price hangs in balance. Whales are buying, exchange reserves are dropping, and momentum looks ready. If the signals align, traders may soon see whether XRP has the strength to finally break higher.

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