The Brazilian government officially banned 27 prediction platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket. The National Monetary Council (NMC) issued Resolution No. 5,298, prohibiting derivative contracts based on non-economic events like sports, political elections, and cultural outcomes.

Telecommunications regulator Anatel was instructed to shut down the domains of the affected platforms in late April 2026, rendering them inaccessible to users within Brazil. The Brazilian government describes these platforms as gambling schemes disguised as financial instruments. 

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s administration also attributes the rising household debt, in part, to unregulated online gambling. Finance Minister Dario Durigan emphasizes that the ban aims to protect citizen savings and curb rising household debt. 

The 27 platforms were initially targeted for offering “illegal wagering,” before the CMN clarified that trading in derivatives remains legal only if tied to approved economic benchmarks (such as exchange rates or interest rates) and conducted by authorized firms. Polymarket has been blocked for offering unlicensed binary event contracts. At the same time, Kalshi was included in the sweep due to new restrictions on non-financial event contracts, despite having recently partnered with Brazilian brokerage XP International in March 2026.

Durigan says prediction markets contravene betting regulations 

According to Finance Minister Durigan, prediction markets based on elections, sports, and cultural events contravene regulations and lack federal oversight. The Brazilian Central Bank also emphasizes that these platforms bypass authorized financial frameworks, potentially threatening the stability and transparency of the national financial system. Economic Reforms Secretary Regis Dudena also agrees that these platforms bypass Congress-approved regulations, operating in a “gray area” that lacks consumer protection.

However, industry experts and critics highlight significant drawbacks regarding the Brazilian government’s focus on protection. They warn that such a broad ban stifles a thriving digital finance sector that could offer unique hedging tools and crucial data for forecasting. Banning regulated platforms like Kalshi (which has partnered with a local brokerage) may also drive users toward even less transparent offshore platforms. 

Meanwhile, the move to ban prediction markets positions Brazil alongside Colombia and Argentina in classifying them as unregulated gambling rather than financial trading. Presidential Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior emphasizes that the ban aims to protect families from exposure to harmful practices.

However, Cryptopolitan notes that losing these prediction markets could affect market intelligence during critical events such as elections. Prediction markets are often valued for their ability to aggregate information more accurately than traditional polls.  

NMC defines underlying assets for derivative trading 

The NMC’s resolution establishes a clear boundary between financial trading and what the government characterizes as “gambling disguised as finance.” Derivative contracts are now limited to pre-defined economic and financial benchmarks, including price indices (e.g., inflation rates), interest rates, and exchange rates. The definition provides the legal basis for the current crackdown on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

On the other hand, trading in permitted derivatives remains legal only if conducted by firms authorized by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) and in compliance with strict secondary regulations. The Brazilian Ministry of Finance and the CMN frame this as a vital step to ensure that the financial system is not used to facilitate “potentially destructive” gambling habits that worsen household debt.

However, it is important to note that the regulatory approaches of Brazil and the U.S. toward prediction markets diverged significantly in 2026. They are moving in opposite directions regarding the legality of non-economic event contracts. Brazil’s CMN has adopted a restrictive, categorical approach that effectively bans event-based prediction markets. At the same time, the U.S. CFTC has pivoted toward a more permissive though highly regulated framework in 2026 under Chairman Michael Selig.

Specifically, the CFTC classifies event contracts as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) because their value depends on an event happening. On February 4, 2026, the CFTC withdrew a prior 2024 proposal that would have categorically banned contracts on elections and sports as “gaming.” The Commission now considers sports and certain political contracts permissible for trading on authorized platforms like Kalshi. 

Meanwhile, a new Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) was issued on March 12, 2026, to establish standards for these markets rather than banning them. The only requirement is that these prediction platforms adhere to strict principles regarding market manipulation and trade protection.

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