Bernstein Keeps $140 Circle Target, but Outlets Split on Size of USDC Rebound

2 min readPublished 25 Aug 2026

Bernstein is sticking with a $140 price target on Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, arguing a rebound in USDC supply marks the start of a new growth phase for the company. That much, Cointelegraph and The Block agree on. What they don’t agree on is how big the rebound actually was.

According to Cointelegraph, which reviewed the Bernstein research note published Monday, USDC supply increased by roughly $2 billion over seven days, reversing what the firm called a six-month stretch of stagnant or declining growth — a pattern Bernstein described as “digital dollar reflation.” The Block, however, reported the same weekly expansion at $1.7 billion. Neither figure is trivial, but they are not the same number, and the evidence available does not resolve which is correct.

Where the coverage agrees

Both outlets confirm the core of Bernstein’s call: an Outperform rating on Circle (CRCL) and a $140 price target, tied to renewed USDC supply growth after months of flat or falling issuance. Both also report that Bernstein points to stablecoin payments adoption, tokenized capital markets, and greater US regulatory clarity as forces that could extend the growth cycle over the next year, per Cointelegraph’s reading of the note and The Block’s summary of it.

Where it diverges

Beyond the $2 billion versus $1.7 billion gap on supply growth, The Block reported a detail absent from Cointelegraph’s account: that Bernstein frames Circle’s growth cycle as independent of the Clarity Act passing, meaning the firm doesn’t see that legislation as a precondition for the thesis to hold. Cointelegraph’s version does not mention the Clarity Act at all.

There’s also a trajectory question no single outlet states outright. CoinDesk‘s own coverage, dated March 2026, shows Bernstein carrying a $190 price target on Circle at that time. Five months later, per Cointelegraph and The Block, the same firm’s target sits at $140 — a reduction, not an increase, even as Bernstein now frames the setup as newly bullish. None of the three outlets in this evidence set explains what drove that cut.

The numbers behind the call

Cointelegraph reported that Circle shares have risen roughly 40% over the past month, and that Bernstein’s $140 target implies roughly 60% upside from current levels. The outlet also reported that Bernstein tracks a measure it calls adjusted stablecoin transaction volume, and that on this basis USDC’s share climbed from about 40% in 2025 to a majority position above 60% in 2026 — enough, per Cointelegraph, to move ahead of Tether’s USDT even though USDC still trails USDT in overall market capitalization.

On the company itself, Cointelegraph reported Circle priced its IPO shares at $31 in June 2025, raising roughly $1.1 billion, before the stock fell back toward that IPO price by November 2025 amid a broader crypto downturn. Cointelegraph also reported that Circle’s most recent quarterly figures — $701 million in revenue and $48 million in net income — each came in higher than the year-earlier period.

What’s unresolved

The size of the USDC supply rebound — $2 billion or $1.7 billion — is not settled by the evidence available. Nor is the reason Bernstein’s target moved from $190 in March to $140 now. And whether the AI-agent stablecoin payments trend Cointelegraph says Bernstein flagged is a meaningful driver yet, or an early-stage signal, remains an open question none of the outlets in this evidence set answers.