Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Odds to 10%, But Outlets Disagree on the Path There
Galaxy Digital’s research arm has cut its odds of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act becoming law in 2026 to 10%, according to Cointelegraph and Crypto Briefing, both reporting on Aug. 15, 2026. The figure marks the sharpest collapse yet in a probability estimate that stood at 75% less than three months ago.
The immediate cause, per Cointelegraph, is arithmetic: the Senate returns from recess on Sept. 14 with only an estimated two to three weeks of usable floor time before the year’s legislative calendar closes. Cointelegraph reported that Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn, wrote in a Friday X post that passage this year would require the bill to “dominates basically the entire working session” unless a motion-to-proceed vote happens immediately when lawmakers return.
Where the two accounts agree
Both outlets agree on the bookends. Cointelegraph and Crypto Briefing both report that Galaxy’s estimate peaked at 75% and has now fallen to 10%. Both also report the estimate stood at 50% by late June, and both cite the same two unresolved political disputes as central to the downgrade: an ethics clause governing how current and former government officials can hold or trade crypto assets, and objections from banks over provisions allowing stablecoins to offer yield. Both outlets also report that more than 200 crypto companies and organizations, organized through the Stand With Crypto coalition, have publicly pushed the Senate to pass the bill.
Where the two accounts diverge
The sequencing differs. Cointelegraph’s timeline moves in three steps: 75% at the May 22 committee markup, down to 60% on June 6, then to 50% on June 26, and now to 10%. Crypto Briefing’s timeline adds a step Cointelegraph does not mention: it reports the estimate fell further to 30% after a combined legislative text was released July 24, before what it calls the sharpest single drop, from 30% to 10%, in mid-August. Neither outlet’s article cites Galaxy’s underlying research note directly, and neither explains why the other’s sequence omits or includes the 30% mark — the discrepancy is unresolved in the public record as it stands.
Crypto Briefing alone reports that the bill carries the formal designation H.R. 3633 and that Sen. Cynthia Lummis has continued pushing for its passage. Crypto Briefing alone also reports that the Senate Banking Committee vote on May 22 was 15-9. Cointelegraph alone reports the specific dated steps of 60% on June 6 and 50% on June 26, and attributes the analysis to Thorn’s X post directly.
Why it matters
A firm that priced the bill at 75% odds in May now sees it at 10%, a shift that signals crypto-native research shops view the 2026 legislative window as effectively closing. The CLARITY Act would establish the first US regulatory framework splitting digital-asset oversight between the CFTC and SEC depending on classification, per Crypto Briefing. If it does not pass this session, Crypto Briefing reports it would need to be reintroduced in the next Congress, restarting a committee process that took roughly a year.
What to watch
The immediate marker is Sept. 14, when the Senate reconvenes. Cointelegraph’s reporting on Galaxy’s analysis suggests an initial motion-to-proceed vote occurring right away is close to a prerequisite for passage this year. Beyond that, both outlets point to the ethics and stablecoin-yield disputes as the substantive sticking points that calendar pressure alone does not resolve.
Sources
Every fact above is attributed to one of these reports. Where they disagree, the article says so.
Read More
