VanEck Says 8 of 12 Bitcoin Capitulation Signals Are Firing — But Outlets Disagree on the Math

4 min readPublished 18 Aug 2026

VanEck’s researchers say 8 of the 12 signals in its Bitcoin Capitulation Check are currently flashing, a reading the asset manager links to a possible end to bitcoin’s extended correction. The call is confirmed independently by two outlets — The Block and Crypto Briefing — both of which reported on the same VanEck note on August 18, 2026. But their accounts of the underlying numbers do not match, and neither published the report itself, leaving readers unable to verify which version is closer to VanEck’s actual text.

What both outlets agree on

The Block and Crypto Briefing align on the core claim: eight of VanEck’s 12 capitulation signals are firing, and all 12 have dropped into their capitulation zone at some point over the past three months, per both outlets. Both also report a roughly 356,000 BTC drop in coins held longer than a year over the past 30 days, a decline that brought the total to 11.84 million BTC and pushed long-term holders’ share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months. Both outlets characterize VanEck’s framing consistently: the firm believes bitcoin may be nearing or entering an accumulation phase after a period of what VanEck described as price capitulation, according to The Block. Both also report VanEck’s caution that historical periods with eight to 12 signals firing have produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below bitcoin’s broader baseline.

Where the two accounts diverge

The agreement ends at the details supporting the capitulation call. The Block reports bitcoin is trading about 48% below its all-time high of around $126,300 set in October 2025. Crypto Briefing puts that same distance at 49% below the all-time high. Neither outlet flags the other’s figure, and the one-point gap is unresolved.

The two outlets also disagree on the historical cycle length VanEck cites. The Block reports that the three previous bitcoin bear-market phases took an average of 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown, and that the current cycle is now roughly in its 11th month from the October peak. Crypto Briefing instead reports that previous bear markets have averaged about 11 months from peak to trough, and that the current drawdown has entered its tenth month. That is two separate, unreconciled discrepancies stacked on top of each other — the baseline average and the current month count both differ between the two write-ups.

The price snapshots differ too, though this may simply reflect timing: The Block cites bitcoin trading around $64,700 on Tuesday, range-bound between roughly $58,000 and $66,500 since the start of June. Crypto Briefing instead cites a closing price of $63,549 on August 11, which it says was nearly unchanged over the prior month. The two figures are close enough to plausibly reflect different sampling dates rather than a contradiction, but the pack gives no way to confirm that.

Details only one outlet reported

Some figures appear in only one account and should be read as single-sourced. The Block alone reports that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday, the strongest single day since May 5, and that VanEck expects a shallower trough this cycle, citing spot exchange-traded products, a larger institutional holder base, and the absence of failures on the scale of FTX, Celsius or Terra Luna.

Crypto Briefing alone reports that VanEck treats price drawdown separately from its signal count, using a decline threshold of at least 35%, and that 30-day realized volatility had fallen to 27.2%, well below VanEck’s cited long-term average of around 80%. Crypto Briefing also notes that VanEck found one-year returns following similar capitulation clusters have performed better historically, though based on what the outlet describes as a relatively small sample.

Why the gaps matter

VanEck is a large, mainstream asset manager, and its capitulation framework is being read by two outlets as evidence that an 11-month correction could be nearing its end — a claim with obvious weight for anyone tracking where bitcoin sits in its cycle. But the two write-ups disagree on the arithmetic underneath that same call: how far bitcoin has fallen, how long past cycles have lasted, and how far into the current one bitcoin is. That is a reminder that even routine coverage of a research note can drift from the primary document, and neither The Block nor Crypto Briefing gives readers a link to VanEck’s original report to settle it.

What to watch next

Whether U.S. spot bitcoin ETF inflows extend beyond the single strong day The Block reported, or prove to be a one-off.
Whether bitcoin’s price action in the September-through-November window that The Block says VanEck flagged lines up with a historical peak-to-trough transition.
Whether VanEck or another outlet publishes the full Bitcoin Capitulation Check report, which would resolve the all-time-high percentage and cycle-length discrepancies.
Whether long-term holder supply keeps falling below the 60% threshold both outlets cite, or stabilizes.